Is Echemandu the Answer in Houston?

Another running back to burst onto the scene this weekend is Houston's Adimchinobe "Joe" Echemandu, who ran 10 times for 62 yards, and caught 2 passes for 11 yards.
Echemandu was dinged up a bit early on in the game, and Texans coach Gary Kubiak said that had he not been hurting, Echemandu would have had even more of a load. By comparison, Ron Dayne had 18 touches in the game. If Ahman Green remains injured (and perhaps even if he is healthy), Echemandu could be good for about 15 touches the next few games, maybe even more if he is successful.

While the Texans' offensive line is not as bad as it has been in the past, it has not been opening huge holes in the running game. As a team, the Texans are only averaging 3.2 yards per rush. Ahman Green has had the most success, with a 3.7 yards per carry average. Still, a healthy young back may be able to get up near 4.0 yards per rush on this team.

Echemandu is in his fourth year, having spent time in Cleveland (2004), Minnesota (2005), and Oakland (2006-2007) before being picked up by the Texans. He only had 11 career touches with Cleveland before last Sunday's game, and has bounced between team's practice squads and active rosters. In the 2007 pre-season, he averaged 4.3 yards on 39 carries with the Raiders, who kept him until Dominic Rhodes came off of his suspension. Once the Texans picked him up, they saw fit to release Samkon Gado to make room for him on the roster. In 2003 at the University of California, he ran 238 times for a 5.0 yard average. JJ Arrington averaged 5.7 yards per carry on the same team. So Echemandu's overall talent level appears to somewhere between a practice squad player and a backup. Probably no more talent than Ahman Green at this point in his career.

The scheme is the same one that Kubiak brought over from Denver. Players can flourish in this scheme, but the Texans don't have anywhere near the offensive line that Kubiak had in Denver.

San Diego, whom Echemandu had his 73 total yards against, is only an average team against the run this year. Houston's next three games are against Oakland, New Orleans, and Cleveland, who rank 32, 8, and 18 against the run.

So it would not be surprising to see Echemandu go for 80+ yards against the Raiders this week, but I would expect his production to drop off after that. Still, some success might be enough to allow him to keep getting carries the rest of the year.

I would rate Echemandu only slightly ahead of this week's other waiver wire wonder, Ryan Grant of Green Bay.

Is Ryan Grant the Real Deal?

Perhaps the most interesting fantasy development from this weekend's slate of NFL games is from last night's contest, where Ryan Grant rushed for 104 yards on 22 carries. He added 7 more yards on 3 receptions. He has already been named Green Bay's starter for week 9. Is he worth a look? Let's use our five factors to make a decision:

1. Opportunity. Grant has been given the opportunity, but Green Bay will likely remain a pass-first, run-second offense. The Packers have run more than 22 times only twice in seven games this season, so it is unlikely that he will continue to see 20+ carries even as the starter.

2. Teammates. Grant has a good passing game surrounding him, but I don't know if he has an offensive line that can open holes for him. The Packers are averaging just 3.4 yards per carry as a team this year. I know, part of that is because they have terrible backs, but if Grant was that much better he would have stood out by now, which brings us to...

3. Talent. Who is Ryan Grant anyway? I was embarrassed that I didn't know last night, but I became less embarrassed when I heard Jim Mora (who presumably has the entire NFL network's resources at his disposal) say "I think he played for someone last year... but I don't know who." Here's what I could find out. He played college ball at Notre Dame from 2001-2004, where he backed up Julius Jones and Darius Walker. In 2003-2004, he averaged 4.1 yards per carry, while Jones averaged 5.5 (2003) and Walker averaged 4.2 (2004 as a freshman). So his talent level appears to be quite a bit less than Jones, a good NFL running back, and slightly less than Walker, who went undrafted and currently resides on the practice squad of the running-back starved Texans. It appears that he spent 2005 out of football, then spent 2006 with the Giants, apparently on injured reserved with a hand injury (sustained at a night club, which may give us a glimpse into his personality). He had no carries. In the 2007 preseason, he carried 18 times for 90 yards for the Giants, who traded him to the Packers for a late round pick in lieu of cutting him. So, it appears that Mr. Grant has about a practice-squad talent level.

4. Scheme. As mentioned above, the Packers are a pass-first team that has done nothing on the ground this year. Last year, with Ahman Green, a back who is arguably much more talented than Grant, they only managed 3.8 yards per rush (21st in the NFL). This is not a team upon which any running back would flourish.

5. Opponents. Last night's opponents, the Denver Broncos, currently are allowing 4.9 yards per rush, 31st in the NFL. Yes, they are TERRIBLE. So Grant's 4.7 yards per rush effort last night was actually BELOW AVERAGE for a Bronco's opponent. Green Bay's next 2 opponents are Kansas City (4.0, 16th) and Minnesota (2.9, 2nd), so I don't expect Grant to find nearly the running lanes he had last night.

So I can't think of any non-injured starting running back in the league that I would drop to pick up Grant. If you have a backup that is not handcuffed to one of your starters or if you are still frantically trying to replace Ronnie Brown, go ahead and give him a shot, but I wouldn't set my hopes to high. Grant may not crack 15 carries or 60 yards the rest of the season.

Impact: Kellen Clemens starting in NY

While no official announcement has come from the Jets, the New York Post reports that Kellen Clemens will take over starting QB duties for Chad Pennington.
The obvious impact of this is that Pennington is no longer roster-worthy and should be dropped immediately, but you didn't need me to tell you that.
Is second-year player Clemens worth a look? First-year starters at quarterback rarely have any significant upside. Exceptions such as Tony Romo and Tom Brady had teams that were already pretty good around them. The 1-7 Jets aren't good. The main asset that Clemens has over Pennington is a strong arm, but the Jets' porous offensive line is not going to give him the time required to throw many deep routes. Clemens may be better than Quinn Gray and whoever is starting in Minnesota for the rest of the year, but if you have any other options, choose him over Kellen.
What does this mean to the other skill position players on the Jets?
The most negative impact may be to Laveranues Coles, who has always had a good rapport with Pennington. He may now see more of his targets going to Jerricho Cotchery, who may be helped just a bit.
Expect the Jets to lean more heavily on the running game while Clemens adjusts, which could mean more carries for Thomas Jones. Defenses can't line up more men in the box than they already had against the Jets, so I don't see his 3.7 yards per rush average getting any worse. Also, Leon Washington may get a few more spillover carries when Jones gets tired, and his pass-catching skills will come in handy as Clemens may use him as a dump-off security blanket. Washington still isn't startable, but could be an OK bye-week fill in in PPR leagues.

Watson Watch

Kenny Watson carried 19 times for 88 yards against one of the league's best run defenses (Pittsburgh). This guy is for real. He shouldn't come cheap the rest of the season.

Bulger Watch

Mark Bulger finished another losing effort for the Rams with 310 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception on 24/36 passing. Steven Jackson was injured again, and Richie Incognito was recognizable by another injury on the offensive line.
If anyone in your league thinks Bulger has anything left in him this season, now is the time to sell high.

Week 8 Wide Receivers Ranking

Player	Pos	Team
K Curtis	WR	PHI
P Burress	WR	NYG
B Edwards	WR	CLE
T Holt	WR	STL
G Jennings	WR	GB
R Wayne	WR	IND
L Coles	WR	NYJ
R Williams	WR	DET
H Ward	WR	PIT
TJ Houshmandzadeh	WR	CIN
R Moss	WR	NE
D Driver	WR	GB
S Holmes	WR	PIT
A Davis	WR	HOU
S Smith	WR	CAR
S McDonald	WR	DET
B Berrian	WR	CHI
C Johnson	WR	CIN
J Cotchery	WR	NYJ
V Jackson	WR	SD
M Colston	WR	NO
M Harrison	WR	IND
D Jackson	WR	SF
B Marshall	WR	DEN
C Johnson	WR	DET
M Muhammad	WR	CHI
I Bruce	WR	STL
K Walter	WR	HOU
J Galloway	WR	TB
W Welker	WR	NE
J Jones	WR	GB
A Toomer	WR	NYG
R Brown	WR	PHI
A Battle	WR	SF
M Furrey	WR	DET
J Jurevicius	WR	CLE
R Curry	WR	OAK
L Evans	WR	BUF
D Henderson	WR	NO
B Stokley	WR	DEN
M Booker	WR	MIA
T Williamson	WR	MIN
J Porter	WR	OAK
B Jones	WR	TEN
R Parrish	WR	BUF
D Northcutt	WR	JAX
D Stallworth	WR	NE
A Randle El	WR	WAS
A Gonzales	WR	IND
R Wade	WR	MIN
C Chambers	WR	SD
S Moss	WR	WAS
K Kolbert	WR	CAR
E Moulds	WR	TEN
E Wilford	WR	JAX

Week 8 Tight Ends Ranking

Player	Pos	Team
A Gates	TE	SD
D Clark	TE	IND
H Miller	TE	PIT
K Winslow	TE	CLE
D Clark	TE	CHI
D Lee	TE	GB
J Shockey	TE	NYG
O Daniels	TE	HOU
E Johnson	TE	NO
R McMicheal	TE	STL
C Baker	TE	NYJ
C Cooley	TE	WAS
V Davis	TE	SF
M Schobel	TE	PHI
A Smith	TE	TB
J King	TE	CAR
V Shiancoe	TE	MIN
Z Miller	TE	OAK
B Scaife	TE	TEN
R Royal	TE	BUF
A Scheffler	TE	DEN
R Kelly	TE	CIN
M Lewis	TE	JAX
D Graham	TE	DEN

Week 8 Running Backs Ranking

Player	Pos	Team
L Tomlinson	RB	SD
B Jacobs	RB	NYG
M Lynch	RB	BUF
L White	RB	TEN
W Parker	RB	PIT
A Peterson	RB	MIN
J Addai	RB	IND
S Jackson	RB	STL
R Bush	RB	NO
B Westbrook	RB	PHI
K Keith	RB	IND
J Lewis	RB	CLE
C Portis	RB	WAS
C Benson	RB	CHI
J Chatman	RB	MIA
J Wright	RB	CLE
L Jordan	RB	OAK
F Gore	RB	SF
T Jones	RB	NYJ
E Graham	RB	TB
M Jones-Drew	RB	JAX
F Taylor	RB	JAX
D Foster	RB	CAR
K Watson	RB	CIN
A Green	RB	HOU
D Wynn	RB	GB
K Jones	RB	DET
T Henry	RB	DEN
D Williams	RB	CAR
C Taylor	RB	MIN
L Maroney	RB	NE
L Betts	RB	WAS
S Young	RB	DEN

Week 8 Quarterbacks Ranking

Player	Pos	Team
D McNabb	QB	PHI
B Favre	QB	GB
P Manning	QB	IND
T Brady	QB	NE
B Roethlisberger	QB	PIT
B Griese	QB	CHI
P Rivers	QB	SD
J Kitna	QB	DET
E Manning	QB	NYG
D Anderson	QB	CLE
C Pennington	QB	NYJ
M Bulger	QB	STL
D Brees	QB	NO
C Parmer	QB	CIN
J Garcia	QB	TB
J Cutler	QB	DEN
C Lemon	QB	MIA
T Edwards	QB	BUF
J Campbell	QB	WAS
A Smith	QB	SF
V Testeverde	QB	CAR
T Jackson	QB	MIN
V Young	QB	TEN
M Schaub	QB	HOU
S Rosenfels	QB	HOU
D Culpepper	QB	OAK
Q Gray	QB	JAX

Kenny Watson to remain a starter all year?

Chick Ludwig of the Sporting News writes that Rudi Johnson could be replaced by Kenny Watson as the starter in Cincinnati for the rest of the season. Johnson injured his hamstring on September 23, took two weeks off (including a bye), then re-aggravated the injury on October 14. He missed last week’s game and is yet to practice this week.

Here are Johnson and Watson’s stats for the season:

	Att	Yds	Avg	TD
Watson	66	313	4.7	4
R. Johnson	62	185	3.0	0

Johnson seemed to lose a step last year, as his yards-per-rush average dropped from 4.3 to 3.8 yards. That trend has continued this year.

Watson is in his 6^th NFL season (he spent all of 2001 on the Redskins practice squad). But every time this guy has been given a chance, he has proved he can play. Here are his stats from past seasons:

Year	Att	Yds	Avg	TD
2002	116	534	4.6	1
2003	0	0	0	0
2004	26	161	6.2	0
2005	0	0	0	0
2006	25	138	5.5	1

He now sports a career average of 4.9 yards per rush on a not insignificant 233 carries.

He came from Penn State, where he had 7 carries in 2000 and 15 in 1999. So he’s not in any danger of burn-out. He was basically used as a kick returner, and holds a few Penn State school records in that regard.

So it appears that Watson has the talent, the teammates, and the system needed to succeed. As Johnson’s injury lingers and Watson continues to impress, he may get the opportunity to keep succeeding as well.

He has a tough match-up with the Steelers this week, which means if you get him, you might not be able to start him right away, or if you don’t get him, you might be able to buy low. However, he looks like a great pick-up for the rest of the year. If you miss out on the Jesse Chatman sweepstakes, Watson would be a great consolation prize.

Will Bulger re-emerge?

Before the season started, Mark Bulger was a consensus top-5 fantasy quarterback pick. All year long, I have been waiting for him to fulfill that potential, as he currently is around the 35^th rated quarterback. Some of that has to do with the two games he sat out, but extrapolating his 5-game totals to 7 games would put him around the 29^th rated QB.

I’ve been thinking he has to return to form – he is recovering from his broken ribs that have slowed him down, and he is getting Stephen Jackson back soon as well.

Today, though, I am not so sure that Bulger is going to regain the top-5 QB form he had in the past. Or even top-10.

Here at fantasy football view, we believe that there are five factors that affect a player’s performance. In order of importance, they are:

1. Opportunity

2. Teammates

3. Talent

4. System

5. Opponents

Of these factors, Bulger has numbers 1, 3, and 4 on his side, but it is the players surrounding him that has become the issue. Most significantly, it is the offensive line. This problem was exasperated yesterday when the Rams cut starting offensive lineman Claude Terrell. Terrell was cut loose one week after mouthing off to his coach and on the same day he was arrested for allegedly assaulting his wife. This brings to light the following points about the Rams’ abysmal offensive line:

1. In seven games, only left tackle Alex Barron and center Brett Romberg have started all 7 games, and Romberg has been nicked up the last few weeks.

2. 9 different players have started on the offensive line, Brandon Gorin is expected to be the 10^th as he replaces Terrell.

The result of this is that Bulger is going to continue to get beat around the rest of the year, even worse than Terrell's wife (allegedly). Bulger won’t have time to find his receivers down field, and he probably will never completely heal from his rib injury. Add to this the fact that receivers Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce both seem to have lost a step, and we can no longer say that Bulger is surrounded by premium players, even if Jackson comes back.

Now “surrounding players” also entails the opposing defense, and the Cleveland Browns come to town this week with the 29^th ranked pass defense in the league. So don’t be surprised if Bulger throws for 280+ yards this weekend, but if you have him, sell high, because he won’t be able to maintain this level of performance for the rest of the year.

Welcome to Fantasy Football View

Here we are, with our first blog entry. The idea behind this site is to provide in-depth fantasy football analysis of one or two of the most interesting stories of the day. If you are looking for "Hines Ward looks like he will play next Sunday" type of news, you won't find it here, because there are already many sites that do that very well (and if they would like to advertise with us, we will tell you who they are!).

Instead, the goal here is to look at football from "inside the numbers," to give you an edge over your competitors in other leagues. Hopefully, you will find here thoughts and ideas that you cannot get anywhere else, and just as hopefully, you will find that information to be useful.