Is Ryan Grant the Real Deal?

Perhaps the most interesting fantasy development from this weekend's slate of NFL games is from last night's contest, where Ryan Grant rushed for 104 yards on 22 carries. He added 7 more yards on 3 receptions. He has already been named Green Bay's starter for week 9. Is he worth a look? Let's use our five factors to make a decision:

1. Opportunity. Grant has been given the opportunity, but Green Bay will likely remain a pass-first, run-second offense. The Packers have run more than 22 times only twice in seven games this season, so it is unlikely that he will continue to see 20+ carries even as the starter.

2. Teammates. Grant has a good passing game surrounding him, but I don't know if he has an offensive line that can open holes for him. The Packers are averaging just 3.4 yards per carry as a team this year. I know, part of that is because they have terrible backs, but if Grant was that much better he would have stood out by now, which brings us to...

3. Talent. Who is Ryan Grant anyway? I was embarrassed that I didn't know last night, but I became less embarrassed when I heard Jim Mora (who presumably has the entire NFL network's resources at his disposal) say "I think he played for someone last year... but I don't know who." Here's what I could find out. He played college ball at Notre Dame from 2001-2004, where he backed up Julius Jones and Darius Walker. In 2003-2004, he averaged 4.1 yards per carry, while Jones averaged 5.5 (2003) and Walker averaged 4.2 (2004 as a freshman). So his talent level appears to be quite a bit less than Jones, a good NFL running back, and slightly less than Walker, who went undrafted and currently resides on the practice squad of the running-back starved Texans. It appears that he spent 2005 out of football, then spent 2006 with the Giants, apparently on injured reserved with a hand injury (sustained at a night club, which may give us a glimpse into his personality). He had no carries. In the 2007 preseason, he carried 18 times for 90 yards for the Giants, who traded him to the Packers for a late round pick in lieu of cutting him. So, it appears that Mr. Grant has about a practice-squad talent level.

4. Scheme. As mentioned above, the Packers are a pass-first team that has done nothing on the ground this year. Last year, with Ahman Green, a back who is arguably much more talented than Grant, they only managed 3.8 yards per rush (21st in the NFL). This is not a team upon which any running back would flourish.

5. Opponents. Last night's opponents, the Denver Broncos, currently are allowing 4.9 yards per rush, 31st in the NFL. Yes, they are TERRIBLE. So Grant's 4.7 yards per rush effort last night was actually BELOW AVERAGE for a Bronco's opponent. Green Bay's next 2 opponents are Kansas City (4.0, 16th) and Minnesota (2.9, 2nd), so I don't expect Grant to find nearly the running lanes he had last night.

So I can't think of any non-injured starting running back in the league that I would drop to pick up Grant. If you have a backup that is not handcuffed to one of your starters or if you are still frantically trying to replace Ronnie Brown, go ahead and give him a shot, but I wouldn't set my hopes to high. Grant may not crack 15 carries or 60 yards the rest of the season.