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Monday, November 26, 2007
Running Back Madness
Ricky Williams now looks likely to start in tonight's game, with Jesse Chatman still not recovered from his injury. 70 yards and a touchdown would not surprise me from Ricky, so if that sounds good to you, give him a start. If he does really well, then he might be on the better end of a time-share situation with Chatman.
The other Adrian Peterson will now be starting in Chicago for the injured Ced Benson, long overdue for some people who thought that Benson should have been benched due to ineffectiveness. Now Peterson will get the bulk of the carries for the rest of the year, which makes him worth rostering in any league.
Kolby Smith looked awfully good against the awful Raiders in his first start. The Chiefs have no one else to turn to, so expect Smith continue to get plenty of carries, but his production should drop off when he faces real defenses.
Throughout this week, I will expand upon this issues with more in-depth looks. Also, we have an exciting announcement regarding the site coming soon.
The other Adrian Peterson will now be starting in Chicago for the injured Ced Benson, long overdue for some people who thought that Benson should have been benched due to ineffectiveness. Now Peterson will get the bulk of the carries for the rest of the year, which makes him worth rostering in any league.
Kolby Smith looked awfully good against the awful Raiders in his first start. The Chiefs have no one else to turn to, so expect Smith continue to get plenty of carries, but his production should drop off when he faces real defenses.
Throughout this week, I will expand upon this issues with more in-depth looks. Also, we have an exciting announcement regarding the site coming soon.
Smith Watch
Kolby Smith, the last running back available to the Chiefs, ran 31 times for 150 yards and 2 TDs in Kansas City's loss this afternoon. He added one catch for 2 yards.
This was a pretty amazing performance from a guy that Herm Edwards was reluctant to use, but it also proves that the Raider's run defense is just atrocious. Some guy named Gilbert Harris got 2 carries for the Chiefs, but expect Smith to continue to get the bulk of the carries. Just don't expect these results every week. If Smith can average 4.8 yards per rush against the Raiders, then he might average about 3.7-3.8 against the rest of the league. I had said earlier in the week to expect about 3.0 yards per rush, so maybe the projection should be upgraded to about 3.4 yards per rush.
This was a pretty amazing performance from a guy that Herm Edwards was reluctant to use, but it also proves that the Raider's run defense is just atrocious. Some guy named Gilbert Harris got 2 carries for the Chiefs, but expect Smith to continue to get the bulk of the carries. Just don't expect these results every week. If Smith can average 4.8 yards per rush against the Raiders, then he might average about 3.7-3.8 against the rest of the league. I had said earlier in the week to expect about 3.0 yards per rush, so maybe the projection should be upgraded to about 3.4 yards per rush.
Saturday, November 24, 2007
Changes to weekly rankings
Donavon McNabb is out, so drop him off the list. Replacement AJ Feely gets the tough start against the Patriots, and slides in between JP Losman and Joey Harrington. Jess Chatman looks likely to miss this weekend's game, so drop him down at least to the level of DeAngelo Williams. Ricky Williams looks very likely to get his carries, maybe even a start, so put him around the Kenny Watson level for this week. Remember, the Dolphins have a tough matchup with the Steelers this week, so don't crazy with Williams just yet.
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Fantasy Wide Receivers, Week 12
| Player | Pos | Team |
| A Johnson | WR | HOU |
| R Moss | WR | NE |
| T Owens | WR | DAL |
| G Jennings | WR | GB |
| B Edwards | WR | CLE |
| TJ Houshmandzadeh | WR | CIN |
| D Hackett | WR | SEA |
| R Wayne | WR | IND |
| T Holt | WR | STL |
| J Galloway | WR | TB |
| W Welker | WR | NE |
| A Boldin | WR | ARZ |
| M Colston | WR | NO |
| R Williams | WR | DET |
| C Henry | WR | CIN |
| D Driver | WR | GB |
| B Marshall | WR | DEN |
| P Burress | WR | NYG |
| S Smith | WR | CAR |
| S McDonald | WR | DET |
| C Johnson | WR | CIN |
| D Mason | WR | BAL |
| L Fitzgerald | WR | ARZ |
| J Cotchery | WR | NYJ |
| L Evans | WR | BUF |
| D Bowe | WR | KC |
| K Curtis | WR | PHI |
| B Engram | WR | SEA |
| B Berrian | WR | CHI |
| B Stokley | WR | DEN |
| J Jones | WR | GB |
| D Stallworth | WR | NE |
| R Curry | WR | OAK |
| D Branch | WR | SEA |
| A Toomer | WR | NYG |
| H Ward | WR | PIT |
| I Bruce | WR | STL |
| I Hilliard | WR | TB |
| C Johnson | WR | DET |
| J Porter | WR | OAK |
| M Muhammad | WR | CHI |
| J Jurevicius | WR | CLE |
| D Northcutt | WR | JAX |
| B Jones | WR | TEN |
| J Gage | WR | TEN |
| R White | WR | ATL |
| M Furrey | WR | DET |
| A Battle | WR | SF |
| A Randle El | WR | WAS |
| S Moss | WR | WAS |
| K Walter | WR | HOU |
| A Davis | WR | HOU |
| V Jackson | WR | SD |
| D Patten | WR | NO |
| R Brown | WR | PHI |
| B Wade | WR | MIN |
| D Jackson | WR | SF |
| P Crayton | WR | DAL |
| C Chambers | WR | SD |
| M Jenkins | WR | ATL |
| R Parrish | WR | BUF |
| K Kolbert | WR | CAR |
| M Clayton | WR | BAL |
| T Williamson | WR | MIN |
| M Booker | WR | MIA |
| T Ginn | WR | MIA |
| N Burleson | WR | SEA |
| D Henderson | WR | NO |
| D Carter | WR | CAR |
| E Wilford | WR | JAX |
| E Moulds | WR | TEN |
| A Gonzalez | WR | IND |
| S Parker | WR | KC |
| E Kennison | WR | KC |
Based on 1 point for 10 yards receiving, 6 points for a touchdown.
Players in bold are must-starts.
Patrick Crayton has a sore ankle, and his performance has been too streaky this year for you to take a risk on him.
Fantasy Tight Ends, Week 12
| Player | Pos | Team |
| A Gates | TE | SD |
| K Winslow | TE | CLE |
| J Witten | TE | DAL |
| J Shockey | TE | NYG |
| D Lee | TE | GB |
| T Gonzalez | TE | KC |
| D Clark | TE | IND |
| H Miller | TE | PIT |
| O Daniels | TE | HOU |
| B Watson | TE | NE |
| C Cooley | TE | WAS |
| A Smith | TE | TB |
| G Olsen | TE | CHI |
| C Baker | TE | NYJ |
| R McMicheal | TE | STL |
| V Davis | TE | SF |
| L Pope | TE | ARZ |
| E Johnson | TE | NO |
| J King | TE | CAR |
| M Lewis | TE | JAX |
| B Scaife | TE | TEN |
| A Scheffler | TE | DEN |
| V Shiancoe | TE | MIN |
| A Crumpler | TE | ATL |
| Z Miller | TE | OAK |
| M Pollard | TE | SEA |
| D Clark | TE | CHI |
| LJ Smith | TE | PHI |
| J Peele | TE | MIA |
| D Graham | TE | DEN |
| R Kelly | TE | CIN |
Based on 1 point for 10 receiving yards, 6 points for touchdown.
Fantasy Running Backs, Week 12
| Player | Pos | Team |
| J Addai | RB | IND |
| B Westbrook | RB | PHI |
| M Barber | RB | DAL |
| W Parker | RB | PIT |
| W McGahee | RB | BAL |
| J Lewis | RB | CLE |
| E James | RB | ARZ |
| C Portis | RB | WAS |
| C Benson | RB | CHI |
| L Tomlinson | RB | SD |
| M Jones-Drew | RB | JAX |
| C Taylor | RB | MIN |
| L White | RB | TEN |
| R Bush | RB | NO |
| M Morris | RB | SEA |
| S Jackson | RB | STL |
| E Graham | RB | TB |
| S Young | RB | DEN |
| R Dayne | RB | HOU |
| K Smith | RB | KC |
| J Jones | RB | DAL |
| J Chatman | RB | MIA |
| J Fargas | RB | OAK |
| W Dunn | RB | ATL |
| D Foster | RB | CAR |
| F Gore | RB | SF |
| F Taylor | RB | JAX |
| L Maroney | RB | NE |
| K Jones | RB | DET |
| T Jones | RB | NYJ |
| R Grant | RB | GB |
| A Thomas | RB | BUF |
| R Johnson | RB | CIN |
| K Watson | RB | CIN |
| K Keith | RB | IND |
| D Ward | RB | NYG |
| J Norwood | RB | ATL |
| D Williams | RB | CAR |
| R Droughns | RB | NYG |
| B Jackson | RB | GB |
| A Echemandu | RB | HOU |
| L Betts | RB | WAS |
| A Peterson | RB | CHI |
| J Wright | RB | CLE |
Based on 1 point for 10 yards rushing/receiving, 6 points per touchdown.
I expect Marion Barber to run wild on the Jets. Selvin Young could lose time to Travis Henry or Andre Hall, and might be a little too risky to use. Still. Ryan Grant is expected to play, but has a bad matchup against a Lions defense that is better against the run than you would expect. Derrick Ward is also iffy to play right now, but has a bad matchup against the Minnesota run defense anyway.
Fantasy Quarterbacks, Week 12
| Player | Pos | Team |
| T Brady | QB | NE |
| B Favre | QB | GB |
| T Romo | QB | DAL |
| E Manning | QB | NYG |
| M Hasselbeck | QB | SEA |
| C Parmer | QB | CIN |
| D Anderson | QB | CLE |
| M Schaub | QB | HOU |
| J Kitna | QB | DET |
| K Clemens | QB | NYJ |
| D Garrard | QB | JAX |
| J Garcia | QB | TB |
| P Manning | QB | IND |
| D Brees | QB | NO |
| J Campbell | QB | WAS |
| V Young | QB | TEN |
| B Roethlisberger | QB | PIT |
| K Boller | QB | BAL |
| J Cutler | QB | DEN |
| M Bulger | QB | STL |
| K Warner | QB | ARZ |
| D McNabb | QB | PHI |
| P Rivers | QB | SD |
| V Testeverde | QB | CAR |
| D Culpepper | QB | OAK |
| B Croyle | QB | KC |
| R Grossman | QB | CHI |
| J Losman | QB | BUF |
| J Harrington | QB | ATL |
| T Jackson | QB | MIN |
| J Beck | QB | MIA |
Based on 1 point per 20 yards passing, 3 points per passing touchdown.
Nope, we didn't get the Manning brothers backwards. Eli has a good matchup against the Vikings, while Payton faces a Falcons defense that doesn't give up many yards through the air (because they give up so much on the ground). Donavan McNabb has a tough matchup against the Patriots even if his ankle is healthy; you should be able to find a better alternative.
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Fantasy Impact: Holmes Injured
Jay Glazer of Fox Sports has reported that Priest Holmes has re-injured his neck, and his career may finally be over. Readers of this blog know that we have considered this injury inevitable. Its sad to see a man that had achieved such greatness go down, but where does this leave the fantasy landscape?
Kolby Smith becomes the Chiefs starter until Larry Johnson is able to come back, which is still very questionable, based upon recent reports from Rotonews and ProFootballTalk.com. Smith has 10 carries for 19 yards, and 7 catches for 62 yards on the season. On the Chiefs' rushing offense (which is 31st in yards per game this season), Larry Johnson has averaged 3.5 yards per carry and Priest Holmes 3.0. It is hard to imagine Smith averaging more than 3.0. This offensive line is just that bad. However, I don't see the Chiefs relying on the arm of Brodie Croyle, either, so expect Smith to get about 20 carries per game. He also could add about 3 catches for 20 yards, with a touchdown thrown in every 3rd week or so. Worth owning, but nothing to get too excited about.
Kolby Smith becomes the Chiefs starter until Larry Johnson is able to come back, which is still very questionable, based upon recent reports from Rotonews and ProFootballTalk.com. Smith has 10 carries for 19 yards, and 7 catches for 62 yards on the season. On the Chiefs' rushing offense (which is 31st in yards per game this season), Larry Johnson has averaged 3.5 yards per carry and Priest Holmes 3.0. It is hard to imagine Smith averaging more than 3.0. This offensive line is just that bad. However, I don't see the Chiefs relying on the arm of Brodie Croyle, either, so expect Smith to get about 20 carries per game. He also could add about 3 catches for 20 yards, with a touchdown thrown in every 3rd week or so. Worth owning, but nothing to get too excited about.
Monday, November 19, 2007
Good Fantasy Playoff Matchups
As the fantasy regular season winds down, lets take a look at some players that look to have good or bad matchups during the fantasy postseason. We will perform this exercise by assigning each team defense a score for both run defense and pass defense. We take the yardage allowed by the defense, then divide it by the league average. Thus, if a team gives up the league average amount of rushing yards per game, its run defense will receive a score of 1. If a team gives up 10% more passing yards than the league average, its pass defense will receive a score of 1.1.
Then, we look at teams opponents in weeks 14-16 (typical fantasy playoff weeks), and find the average opponent defense strength for the span.
Teams facing the worst pass defenses during this stretch include Washington (Chicago, NY Giants, and Minnesota), and Chicago (Washington, Minnesota, and Green Bay). So players like Jason Campbell, Santana Moss, Antwan Randel El, Bernard Berrian, and Muhsin Muhammad would be good, inexpensive players to add to your postseason fantasy roster.
Teams facing the worst run defenses include Cleveland (NY Jets, Buffalo, Cincinnati) , Green Bay (Oakland, St Louis, Chicago), New England (Pittsburgh, NY Jets, Miami), and Buffalo (Miami, Cleveland, NY Giants), so target players like Jamal Lewis, Ryan Grant, Laurence Maroney, and Marshawn Lynch as you try to build a post-season roster.
Teams facing the best pass defense during the fantasy playoffs include New England, Jacksonville, and Houston. I am not about to urge you to get rid of anyone in the Patriots' passing game, and if you are relying on Jacksonville's pass offense, you aren't in the playoffs. But you might want to have options to Matt Schaub and Andre Davis (but keep playing Andre Johnson regardless).
Teams facing the best run defenses include Chicago, Carolina, and Miami. Cedric Benson probably didn't carry you into the playoffs, but he won't help you once there either. Deshaun Foster and Deangelo Williams also won't be great options. You might even want someone to start instead of Jesse Chatman when he faces Baltimore and New England in weeks 15 and 16.
Then, we look at teams opponents in weeks 14-16 (typical fantasy playoff weeks), and find the average opponent defense strength for the span.
Teams facing the worst pass defenses during this stretch include Washington (Chicago, NY Giants, and Minnesota), and Chicago (Washington, Minnesota, and Green Bay). So players like Jason Campbell, Santana Moss, Antwan Randel El, Bernard Berrian, and Muhsin Muhammad would be good, inexpensive players to add to your postseason fantasy roster.
Teams facing the worst run defenses include Cleveland (NY Jets, Buffalo, Cincinnati) , Green Bay (Oakland, St Louis, Chicago), New England (Pittsburgh, NY Jets, Miami), and Buffalo (Miami, Cleveland, NY Giants), so target players like Jamal Lewis, Ryan Grant, Laurence Maroney, and Marshawn Lynch as you try to build a post-season roster.
Teams facing the best pass defense during the fantasy playoffs include New England, Jacksonville, and Houston. I am not about to urge you to get rid of anyone in the Patriots' passing game, and if you are relying on Jacksonville's pass offense, you aren't in the playoffs. But you might want to have options to Matt Schaub and Andre Davis (but keep playing Andre Johnson regardless).
Teams facing the best run defenses include Chicago, Carolina, and Miami. Cedric Benson probably didn't carry you into the playoffs, but he won't help you once there either. Deshaun Foster and Deangelo Williams also won't be great options. You might even want someone to start instead of Jesse Chatman when he faces Baltimore and New England in weeks 15 and 16.
Sunday, November 18, 2007
Boller Watch
Kyle Boller was 22/41 for 279 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs in the Ravens' loss today. Those numbers don't look bad, until you realize that it was against the porous Browns' secondary. Don't expect the yardage numbers to stay that high the rest of the year, but the TD/INT ratio looks about right.
Taylor Watch
Chester Taylor carried 22 times for 164 yards and 3 TDs in Minnesota's win today. He also added 3 catches for 38 yards. Taylor definitely has talent, and is running behind the same line that gave huge holes to Adrian Peterson. Its nice to get one right every now and then.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
FFV on Vacation
We will be packing up the mini-Van and driving into the bush of Central Texas this afternoon, and will not have access to Internet, Television, or cell phones until Sunday night. We will be back with quick updates on Sunday's action late Sunday or early Monday.
Fantasy Tight Ends, Week 11
| Player | Pos | Team |
| H Miller | TE | PIT |
| K Winslow | TE | CLE |
| A Gates | TE | SD |
| J Witten | TE | DAL |
| D Clark | TE | IND |
| J Shockey | TE | NYG |
| O Daniels | TE | HOU |
| T Gonzalez | TE | KC |
| T Heap | TE | BAL |
| D Lee | TE | GB |
| B Watson | TE | NE |
| C Cooley | TE | WAS |
| R McMicheal | TE | STL |
| L Pope | TE | ARZ |
| E Johnson | TE | NO |
| V Davis | TE | SF |
| G Olsen | TE | CHI |
| D Clark | TE | CHI |
| A Smith | TE | TB |
| J King | TE | CAR |
| A Crumpler | TE | ATL |
| LJ Smith | TE | PHI |
| J Peele | TE | MIA |
| B Scaife | TE | TEN |
| M Pollard | TE | SEA |
| C Baker | TE | NYJ |
| Z Miller | TE | OAK |
| A Scheffler | TE | DEN |
| V Shiancoe | TE | MIN |
| M Lewis | TE | JAX |
| R Royal | TE | BUF |
| D Graham | TE | DEN |
Assumes 1 point for 10 receiving yards, 6 points for a touchdown.
Players in bold are must-starts.
Fantasy Wide Receivers, Week 11
| R Moss | WR | NE |
| A Johnson | WR | HOU |
| B Edwards | WR | CLE |
| TJ Houshmandzadeh | WR | CIN |
| M Colston | WR | NO |
| T Owens | WR | DAL |
| T Holt | WR | STL |
| S Holmes | WR | PIT |
| H Ward | WR | PIT |
| R Wayne | WR | IND |
| G Jennings | WR | GB |
| W Welker | WR | NE |
| J Galloway | WR | TB |
| L Fitzgerald | WR | ARZ |
| R Williams | WR | DET |
| D Hackett | WR | SEA |
| A Boldin | WR | ARZ |
| K Walter | WR | HOU |
| C Johnson | WR | CIN |
| P Burress | WR | NYG |
| K Curtis | WR | PHI |
| D Driver | WR | GB |
| R Curry | WR | OAK |
| S McDonald | WR | DET |
| D Mason | WR | BAL |
| R White | WR | ATL |
| B Engram | WR | SEA |
| I Hilliard | WR | TB |
| I Bruce | WR | STL |
| B Berrian | WR | CHI |
| R Brown | WR | PHI |
| D Patten | WR | NO |
| J Jones | WR | GB |
| D Stallworth | WR | NE |
| S Smith | WR | CAR |
| J Porter | WR | OAK |
| P Crayton | WR | DAL |
| L Evans | WR | BUF |
| N Burleson | WR | SEA |
| C Henry | WR | CIN |
| J Cotchery | WR | NYJ |
| L Coles | WR | NYJ |
| D Bowe | WR | KC |
| B Marshall | WR | DEN |
| A Battle | WR | SF |
| J Jurevicius | WR | CLE |
| C Johnson | WR | DET |
| B Jones | WR | TEN |
| M Muhammad | WR | CHI |
| A Davis | WR | HOU |
| A Toomer | WR | NYG |
| A Randle El | WR | WAS |
| M Furrey | WR | DET |
| M Jenkins | WR | ATL |
| C Chambers | WR | SD |
| D Jackson | WR | SF |
| M Booker | WR | MIA |
| J Gage | WR | TEN |
| D Northcutt | WR | JAX |
| B Stokley | WR | DEN |
| M Clayton | WR | BAL |
| V Jackson | WR | SD |
| R Wade | WR | MIN |
| D Henderson | WR | NO |
| S Moss | WR | WAS |
| K Kolbert | WR | CAR |
| E Moulds | WR | TEN |
| T Williamson | WR | MIN |
| E Wilford | WR | JAX |
| E Kennison | WR | KC |
| S Parker | WR | KC |
| R Parrish | WR | BUF |
Assumes 1 point for 10 receiving yards, 6 points for a touchdown. Andre Johnson is finally back and should put up big numbers right away against New Orleans. Plaxico Burress looks like his injury and lack of practice are finally catching up with him.
Fantasy Running Backs, Week 11
| Player | Pos | Team |
| B Westbrook | RB | PHI |
| L Tomlinson | RB | SD |
| J Addai | RB | IND |
| W Parker | RB | PIT |
| C Taylor | RB | MIN |
| M Barber | RB | DAL |
| E James | RB | ARZ |
| C Portis | RB | WAS |
| S Jackson | RB | STL |
| R Bush | RB | NO |
| W McGahee | RB | BAL |
| J Chatman | RB | MIA |
| M Jones-Drew | RB | JAX |
| R Grant | RB | GB |
| L White | RB | TEN |
| F Gore | RB | SF |
| B Jacobs | RB | NYG |
| E Graham | RB | TB |
| J Lewis | RB | CLE |
| C Benson | RB | CHI |
| W Dunn | RB | ATL |
| M Morris | RB | SEA |
| K Jones | RB | DET |
| A Green | RB | HOU |
| J Jones | RB | DAL |
| P Holmes | RB | KC |
| J Fargas | RB | OAK |
| L Maroney | RB | NE |
| D Foster | RB | CAR |
| A Thomas | RB | BUF |
| R Dayne | RB | HOU |
| F Taylor | RB | JAX |
| T Henry | RB | DEN |
| S Young | RB | DEN |
| R Johnson | RB | CIN |
| T Jones | RB | NYJ |
| K Watson | RB | CIN |
| K Keith | RB | IND |
| L Betts | RB | WAS |
| D Williams | RB | CAR |
| J Wright | RB | CLE |
| A Peterson | RB | CHI |
| A Echemandu | RB | HOU |
Assumes 1 point for 10 rushing/receiving yards, 6 points for a touchdown.
Players in bold are must-starts.
Chester Taylor gets a sweet match-up against Oakland in his first game back as a full-time player. He should be rested and rearing to go. Cedrick Benson is a risky play - he could lose time to the other Adrian Peterson, but it stubborn Lovie Smith may still give him all the carries. Maurice Morris is similarly in danger of losing carries based on Shaun Alexander's status. Anthony Thomas steps in for Marshawn Lynch, but isn't expected to get full-time carries. Selvin Young's value skyrockets to the Jesse Chatman area if Travis Henry doesn't play.
Fantasy Quarterbacks, Week 11
| Player | Pos | Team |
| T Brady | QB | NE |
| D Brees | QB | NO |
| B Roethlisberger | QB | PIT |
| B Favre | QB | GB |
| C Parmer | QB | CIN |
| D McNabb | QB | PHI |
| M Bulger | QB | STL |
| D Anderson | QB | CLE |
| P Manning | QB | IND |
| M Hasselbeck | QB | SEA |
| T Romo | QB | DAL |
| J Garcia | QB | TB |
| M Schaub | QB | HOU |
| E Manning | QB | NYG |
| J Kitna | QB | DET |
| K Warner | QB | ARZ |
| K Clemens | QB | NYJ |
| D Garrard | QB | JAX |
| J Beck | QB | MIA |
| V Young | QB | TEN |
| K Boller | QB | BAL |
| J Campbell | QB | WAS |
| D Culpepper | QB | OAK |
| B Leftwich | QB | ATL |
| P Rivers | QB | SD |
| V Testeverde | QB | CAR |
| B Croyle | QB | KC |
| J Cutler | QB | DEN |
| R Grossman | QB | CHI |
| A Smith | QB | SF |
| T Jackson | QB | MIN |
| J Losman | QB | BUF |
Assumes 1 point for 20 yards passing, 3 points for passing TD.
Players in bold are must-starts for the week.
Drew Brees gets a start against a Texans' secondary without Danta Robinson in a game that should be very high-scoring. Matt Schaub should put up good numbers in that same game against the Saints' horrible secondary. Kyle Boller might look good this week against Cleveland, but he's really not an upgrade for the Ravens. Rex Grossman is back, but you still don't want to start him.
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Week 11 Quick Hits
Since FFV will be going on vacation tomorrow, I will be posting short discussions about several topics instead of in-depth looks at just one topic today.
Ricky Williams has been reinstated by the NFL, according to ESPN's Chris Mortensen. The Dolphins are expected to get a two-week roster exemption before they have to activate or release Williams.
This is only conjecture, but I suspect that the Dolphins will activate Williams for week 13, just in time for the fantasy playoffs. Jesse Chatman has been doing a great job filling in for Ronnie Brown, so he will continue to get a bulk of the carries, but I think the Dolphins will want to showcase Williams so that they can trade him for at least a late-round draft pick in the offseason. The running game is the only bright spot for the Dolphins right now - Brown and Chatman have identical 5.1 yards per rush averages, and I think that Williams could approach that number in this system. Pencil him in for 10 carries, 45 yards, and 2 receptions, 17 yards in weeks 13-17. If you make your fantasy playoffs, you probably already have production better than this, but if you have Chatman, his loss of carries could burn you in the playoffs. If you can get fair value for Chatman in a trade now, I would do it.
Kyle Boller will be starting again in Baltimore. Don't expect much more production than Steve McNair has had up to this point. Boller is no better, and in his fifth season, shows no signs of significant improvement.
Chester Taylor will be filling in until Adrian Peterson is ready, which could be the rest of the season. Taylor did a good job as the main back last year, and has done well running behind Peterson. The running game should still be there for the Vikings, just expect Peterson's 200-yard games to become merely 100-yard games for Taylor. If he is available, you should definately grab him.
Ricky Williams has been reinstated by the NFL, according to ESPN's Chris Mortensen. The Dolphins are expected to get a two-week roster exemption before they have to activate or release Williams.
This is only conjecture, but I suspect that the Dolphins will activate Williams for week 13, just in time for the fantasy playoffs. Jesse Chatman has been doing a great job filling in for Ronnie Brown, so he will continue to get a bulk of the carries, but I think the Dolphins will want to showcase Williams so that they can trade him for at least a late-round draft pick in the offseason. The running game is the only bright spot for the Dolphins right now - Brown and Chatman have identical 5.1 yards per rush averages, and I think that Williams could approach that number in this system. Pencil him in for 10 carries, 45 yards, and 2 receptions, 17 yards in weeks 13-17. If you make your fantasy playoffs, you probably already have production better than this, but if you have Chatman, his loss of carries could burn you in the playoffs. If you can get fair value for Chatman in a trade now, I would do it.
Kyle Boller will be starting again in Baltimore. Don't expect much more production than Steve McNair has had up to this point. Boller is no better, and in his fifth season, shows no signs of significant improvement.
Chester Taylor will be filling in until Adrian Peterson is ready, which could be the rest of the season. Taylor did a good job as the main back last year, and has done well running behind Peterson. The running game should still be there for the Vikings, just expect Peterson's 200-yard games to become merely 100-yard games for Taylor. If he is available, you should definately grab him.
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
The Importance of Opportunity
The recent case studies of Priest Holmes, Kolby Smith, Ryan Grant, and Adimochobe Echewhatever show what we at Fantasy Football View have always (for nearly 2 weeks now) espoused: Opportunity is the most important factor when grading a player for fantasy football purposes.
It does not matter how good a player is, if he doesn't get his number called, he will be worthless to your fantasy team.
Conversely, it does not matter how crappy a player is, if he has plays called for him consistently, he is bound to have value in fantasy football.
It does not matter how good a player is, if he doesn't get his number called, he will be worthless to your fantasy team.
Conversely, it does not matter how crappy a player is, if he has plays called for him consistently, he is bound to have value in fantasy football.
Priest Gets His Carries, Too
Last week we wrote in this space that Herm Edwards had decided to limit Priest Holmes to about 15 carries per game. So our projections were based off of Priest getting 15 carries. Instead, he got 20 carries on Sunday, and added 2 receptions. Now the bad news (for Holmes owners): only 65 yards, or 3.25 yards per carry against a Denver defense that has given up 4.75 yards per rush. Even if you throw out the 13-yard loss on a play were Priest tried to change direction, then you still only get 4.1 yards per carry. So if we adjust his performance for an average defense, you are looking at 3.4-3.5 yards per carry, which just happens to be what Larry Johnson was averaging before he went down with an injury.
Good news for those that picked up Kolby Smith? Not so fast. Smith does not appear to have earned Edwards' trust, getting only 2 carries and 2 receptions in Sunday's game. He didn't do anything with that limited opportunity, amassing only 9 total yards. Also, hard as it is to believe, Holmes did not look that bad on Sunday. He made some nice moves and some hard cuts and turned what would have been no gains or losses into three and four yard carries. Despite my initial observation, he didn't slow down much as the game wore on - on his last 5 carries, he averaged 3.8 yards. So Edwards may have no reason to plug in Smith in the future.
Unless, of course, if Holmes gets injured. However, it is hard to imagine Smith, or anyone else, faring any better behind this offensive line. So if you have Holmes, keep him as long as he is starting, but you can feel free to drop Smith for a better alternative. There is no way to tell who will be getting the lion's share of carries in the Chief's backfield in three weeks, but Smith is third in line behind Larry Johnson and Priest Holmes.
Good news for those that picked up Kolby Smith? Not so fast. Smith does not appear to have earned Edwards' trust, getting only 2 carries and 2 receptions in Sunday's game. He didn't do anything with that limited opportunity, amassing only 9 total yards. Also, hard as it is to believe, Holmes did not look that bad on Sunday. He made some nice moves and some hard cuts and turned what would have been no gains or losses into three and four yard carries. Despite my initial observation, he didn't slow down much as the game wore on - on his last 5 carries, he averaged 3.8 yards. So Edwards may have no reason to plug in Smith in the future.
Unless, of course, if Holmes gets injured. However, it is hard to imagine Smith, or anyone else, faring any better behind this offensive line. So if you have Holmes, keep him as long as he is starting, but you can feel free to drop Smith for a better alternative. There is no way to tell who will be getting the lion's share of carries in the Chief's backfield in three weeks, but Smith is third in line behind Larry Johnson and Priest Holmes.
Monday, November 12, 2007
Fantasy Impact: Grant Getting Carries
"Ryan Grant may not get more than 15 carries or 60 yards the rest of the year" - Anonymous.
OK, I was the one that wrote that. This was after Grant's unexpected 22 carry, 102 yard effort against the woeful Denver run defense.
The next week, against Kansas City, Grant carried 19 times for 55 yards. More carries than I expected, but the yardage came out as expected. I was able to successfully ignore the fact that he added 37 yards on 4 receptions.
Yesterday, Grant had 25 carries for 119 yards against the best run defense in the league. And he added 20 yards on 5 receptions. It wasn't all rainbows and skittles; however, as Grant averaged 9.2 yards on his first 10 touches in the first quarter and only 2.35 yards on 20 touches afterwards. But based on the number of carries he is getting, this is a guy we can no longer ignore.
Before the Denver game, Green Bay's stable of mediocre running backs averaged 24.5 touches per game. Since, they have averaged 32 touches per game, with Grant being the main beneficiary. Part of it is that the Packers now have a guy that they feel comfortable with. However, they have made a conscience effort to run the ball more. Most of the runs are on draws and delays, as they are using their successful passing attack to set up the run.
So was I wrong? Is Grant really a good back? Of course not. But he is the right guy in the right place at the right time. He is getting the opportunity, and he appears to be the right fit for this offense. The Packers may decide to change their offensive stripes with regard to the commitment to the run for a game or two (see the Detroit Lions), but as long as the
Packers don't fall far behind (and with their defense, they won't often), they should continue to feed Grant. This change in opportunity make him one of the top 16 running backs in the league.
OK, I was the one that wrote that. This was after Grant's unexpected 22 carry, 102 yard effort against the woeful Denver run defense.
The next week, against Kansas City, Grant carried 19 times for 55 yards. More carries than I expected, but the yardage came out as expected. I was able to successfully ignore the fact that he added 37 yards on 4 receptions.
Yesterday, Grant had 25 carries for 119 yards against the best run defense in the league. And he added 20 yards on 5 receptions. It wasn't all rainbows and skittles; however, as Grant averaged 9.2 yards on his first 10 touches in the first quarter and only 2.35 yards on 20 touches afterwards. But based on the number of carries he is getting, this is a guy we can no longer ignore.
Before the Denver game, Green Bay's stable of mediocre running backs averaged 24.5 touches per game. Since, they have averaged 32 touches per game, with Grant being the main beneficiary. Part of it is that the Packers now have a guy that they feel comfortable with. However, they have made a conscience effort to run the ball more. Most of the runs are on draws and delays, as they are using their successful passing attack to set up the run.
So was I wrong? Is Grant really a good back? Of course not. But he is the right guy in the right place at the right time. He is getting the opportunity, and he appears to be the right fit for this offense. The Packers may decide to change their offensive stripes with regard to the commitment to the run for a game or two (see the Detroit Lions), but as long as the
Packers don't fall far behind (and with their defense, they won't often), they should continue to feed Grant. This change in opportunity make him one of the top 16 running backs in the league.
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Fargas Watch
Justin Fargas carried 23 times for 81 yards in the Raiders' loss to the Bears today. He added 5 catches for 23 yards. Lamont Jordan did not play. Fargas slowed down late, gaining only 3 yards on his last 4 carries.
Holmes / Smith Watch
Priest Holmes rushed 20 times for 65 yards. There was a busted play on which he lost 13 yards, so other than that, he had 78 yards on 19 carries, just over 4.0 yards per carry. Not bad, but nothing special against a poor Denver defense. More importantly, Kolby Smith only carried twice for 2 yards, so it appears that Priest is the lone back for now, as opposed to sharing carries with Smith as coach Herm Edwards had suggested.
Still, it is difficult for us to believe that Holmes can finish out the season without losing time due to injury or ineffectiveness. He appeared to slow down as the game wore on.
Still, it is difficult for us to believe that Holmes can finish out the season without losing time due to injury or ineffectiveness. He appeared to slow down as the game wore on.
Friday, November 9, 2007
Fantasy Tight Ends, Week 10
| Player | Pos | Team |
| T Gonzalez | TE | KC |
| J Witten | TE | DAL |
| H Miller | TE | PIT |
| A Gates | TE | SD |
| K Winslow | TE | CLE |
| C Cooley | TE | WAS |
| V Davis | TE | SF |
| T Heap | TE | BAL |
| D Lee | TE | GB |
| G Olsen | TE | CHI |
| R McMicheal | TE | STL |
| J Shockey | TE | NYG |
| E Johnson | TE | NO |
| D Clark | TE | IND |
| A Crumpler | TE | ATL |
| D Clark | TE | CHI |
| L Pope | TE | ARZ |
| J Peele | TE | MIA |
| V Shiancoe | TE | MIN |
| B Scaife | TE | TEN |
| A Scheffler | TE | DEN |
| R Royal | TE | BUF |
| J King | TE | CAR |
| Z Miller | TE | OAK |
| R Kelly | TE | CIN |
| M Lewis | TE | JAX |
| D Graham | TE | DEN |
| B Scaife | TE | PHI |
| LJ Smith | TE | PHI |
Antonio Gates and Kellen Winslow both have tough match-ups for the week.
Fantasy Wide Receivers, Week 10
| Player | Pos | Team |
| TJ Houshmandzadeh | WR | CIN |
| M Colston | WR | NO |
| S Holmes | WR | PIT |
| R Wayne | WR | IND |
| G Jennings | WR | GB |
| T Owens | WR | DAL |
| A Boldin | WR | ARZ |
| T Holt | WR | STL |
| L Evans | WR | BUF |
| P Burress | WR | NYG |
| B Edwards | WR | CLE |
| B Engram | WR | SEA |
| H Ward | WR | PIT |
| C Johnson | WR | CIN |
| D Patten | WR | NO |
| D Mason | WR | BAL |
| D Bowe | WR | KC |
| R Williams | WR | DET |
| R White | WR | ATL |
| D Driver | WR | GB |
| S McDonald | WR | DET |
| B Marshall | WR | DEN |
| S Smith | WR | CAR |
| P Crayton | WR | DAL |
| R Curry | WR | OAK |
| J Jones | WR | GB |
| N Burleson | WR | SEA |
| K Curtis | WR | PHI |
| L Fitzgerald | WR | ARZ |
| A Randle El | WR | WAS |
| J Porter | WR | OAK |
| C Johnson | WR | DET |
| I Bruce | WR | STL |
| B Berrian | WR | CHI |
| M Furrey | WR | DET |
| B Stokley | WR | DEN |
| M Booker | WR | MIA |
| A Toomer | WR | NYG |
| M Jenkins | WR | ATL |
| B Jones | WR | TEN |
| A Battle | WR | SF |
| S Moss | WR | WAS |
| C Chambers | WR | SD |
| J Jurevicius | WR | CLE |
| M Muhammad | WR | CHI |
| R Brown | WR | PHI |
| R Wade | WR | MIN |
| D Jackson | WR | SF |
| S Parker | WR | KC |
| K Kolbert | WR | CAR |
| D Northcutt | WR | JAX |
| V Jackson | WR | SD |
| R Parrish | WR | BUF |
| M Clayton | WR | BAL |
| J Horn | WR | ATL |
| E Moulds | WR | TEN |
| E Wilford | WR | JAX |
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