Why were we wrong about Echemandu?

Last week, we (and just about every other fantasy web site) were extolling the virtues of Houston Texans running back Adimochobe Echemandu. In fact, we may have even implied that Echemandu was a better pick up than Ryan Grant. OK, we didn't imply it, we came out and said it. Grant wound up with 86 more total yards than Echemandu on Sunday.

Why were we so wrong about these players? FFV has always said that the biggest thing that affects a players fantasy value is opportunity, and we were way wrong about the opportunity that Echemandu would get. We had predicted that Echemandu would get 15 touches, but he only got 2. We also thought that Grant would get about 15 touches, but he got 23. Those are huge differences.

So what happened with Echemandu? He had 10 carries the week before, and Kubiak stated that he would have gotten more if he hadn't been dinged early. It looked like Ahman Green would miss another game, but he was able to start on Sunday. When Green went down with his inevitable injury, Ron Dayne came up with a big performance that kept Echemandu on the bench. The good news is I won't ever have to type "Echemandu" again, because he is clearly third in line for carries on the Texans' roster. If Green get hurt and Dayne is ineffective, then Adimochobe (let's not use the "E" word) will get his chance to be mediocre. He will never be a sure bet for touches, and therefore is not worthy of a spot on your roster. Sorry if you took our advice and picked him up last week.

So what about Grant? This is a different story. Despite not getting flashy numbers, the Packers appeared determined to run the ball no matter the score, except when they were trailing in the fourth quarter. This is a minor change in philosophy for the Pack this year. Grant got his bell rung, so he may be limited this week, but see if the Packers continue to run 25+ times per game. If so, then Grant might be a little more valuable than we originally thought.