Fantasy Impact: Larry Johnson Injury

Larry Johnson came down with an injured foot on Sunday, and some media outlets are already reporting that he may be out for the season. Without question, he will be out for this weekend's contest against the Broncos.

Priest Holmes moves into the starting role. Holmes, of course, was a great running back for the Chiefs between 2001 and 2004, with 27 TDs in 2003 and at least 4.4 yards per carry in each year. Injuries cut short his 2004 season, and then, after a slow start to 2005, he was knocked out with an injury in the 7th game. He finally returned early this year, and has run 7 times for 17 yards. He is 33 years old, and was slowing down before his injury. In other words, don't expect the old Priest Holmes back. The offensive line is the same one that Larry Johnson struggled behind, so I wouldn't expect any more than Johnson's 3.5 yards per carry from Holmes.

Coach Herm Edwards has stated that he would like to limit Holmes to about 15 carries a game. So that would be 15 carries for 53 yards as a baseline. Holmes is also a good pass catcher, so you might expect an average of 3 catches for 20 yards as well. Not great, but better than what else is on the waiver wire this week.

Given that the Chiefs have been running about 25 times per game this season, that leaves 10 additional carries that will go to backup Kolby Smith, a 5th round rookie from Louisville. Smith took over the starting role for Louisville last year after Micheal Bush (thats two Micheal Bush references in two days!) got injured, and had a respectable 5.6 yards per rush on 154 carries. He has not rushed yet this year, and has only 2 catches on the season. In the pre-season, he rushed 20 times for 70 yards and caught three passes. He may actually be better than Holmes (due to younger legs), but not much better. I would think he might average about 10 carries for 35 yards and 2 catches for 16 yards. His real value, though, could come in the almost inevitable possibility that Holmes gets hurt. Then his workload could increase to 20-25 carries per game, and he might push 100 yards once or twice. If you can afford to stash him on your roster, I think he is worth it.

The upshot is that the Chiefs have a very favorable schedule for running backs coming up. They face the Broncos and their 29th rated rush defense this week. After that, they take on Indianapolis (16th against the run), Oakland (32nd against the run), and San Diego (28th, thanks to a guy named Peterson) before getting Denver again. After those five games, Holmes and Smith should look like Franco Harris and Rocky Bleier (OK, I know Bleier was a fullback, but that's the best I could come up with tonight). I wouldn't be surprised if they don't average more like 4.2 yards per rush during this stretch, instead of the expected 3.5. The only really tough run defense they face the rest of the year is Tennessee (4th) in week 15. Suddenly, both of these guys look very attractive.

Bottom line - if you can pick up either guy (or preferably both), do it. Everyone knows about Holmes, but Smith may go unnoticed in your league, and he has a higher upside potential.